Part 1: Washington’s Strategic Blunders
By Jan van der Putten
In the American-Israeli war against Iran, Trump has done everything wrong that he possibly could, Xi Jinping rightly believes. This is the first part of a diptych about the Iran war. The second part describes how China is profiting immensely from Trump’s lost war.
The Wisdom of Sun Zi’s versus the Impulse of Trump
If the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Zi taught the world anything, it’s that the greatest victory can be achieved by not fighting a war. In their campaign against Iran, Donald Trump and his Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, ignore this wisdom entirely. Had they known anything about strategy, they would have left Iran alone or devised a completely different plan. Instead, Trump allowed himself to be dragged into war by his Israeli friend, Benjamin Netanyahu. From a distance, a man who does know everything about Sun Zi looks on mockingly: Xi Jinping.
Chinese Flexing
At first glance, China also seems to disregard Sun Zi’s 2,500-year-old lesson. Xi is rapidly building a superior military and is fond of saber-rattling. Consider the “muscle-flexing” with which China asserts its claims over Taiwan, the South China Sea, a group of Japanese islands, and territories on the Indian border. These claims are non-negotiable, labeled as China’s ‘core interests’. Consider also the violence with which the Chinese regime tries to assimilate ethnic minorities in its own country. Foreign criticism is dismissed as ‘intolerable interference in China’s internal affairs’.
Xi as Opportunistic Peacemaker
In foreign wars and conflicts, however, Chinese ‘core interests’ are not at stake. Xi generally dislikes these wars, as they can seriously damage Chinese interests. He has no desire for the role American presidents have played for years: the global policeman.
However, this rule of detachment does not apply if China can benefit. This includes selling weapons to a country at war, like Sudan or Myanmar, or playing the peacemaker – as seen in the 2023 reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This role is intended to boost Xi’s international image as a ‘Prince of Peace’. Unfortunately, that Saudi-Iranian accord proved paper-thin. In the current Iran war, the two are sworn enemies once again.
Housecleaning in the People’s Liberation Army
Since the war with Vietnam in 1979, China has had no armed international conflict. The deadly skirmishes on the Indo-Chinese border in 2020 do not count from a Chinese perspective, as they involved ‘core interest’. This long lack of battlefield experience has not served the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) well. It became a state within the state where everything was for sale. Military procurement netted the leading officers colossal bribes, and the ‘price list’ for promotion to a higher rank and thus to a higher income was steep.
When Xi Jinping took power in 2012, he began cleaning these ‘Augean stables’, a process that continues today. His anti-corruption campaign has cost 90% of top generals and six of the seven members of the highest military governing body their jobs – and often their freedom. Even an old family friend fell into disgrace. The same happened to Ministers of Defense and generals appointed by Xi himself. Increasingly, this permanent campaign serves to eliminate high-ranking chiefs who no longer enjoy the absolute trust of the ‘Great Leader’ under the guise of fighting corruption.
Towards a World-Class Military in 2049
Xi has thoroughly reformed the armed forces. He changed the operational structure, reduced personnel from three million to two million, modernized the navy, expanded the nuclear arsenal, and developed high-tech weaponry. Meanwhile, a massive indoctrination campaign, focused on military discipline, ensures the Party maintains absolute control. Xi’s goal is for the People’s Liberation Army is to become a ‘world-class military’ in 2049 – the centenary of the People’s Republic – with AI playing a central role.
Victory Without Battle
The military must adequately protect China’s territorial ‘core interests’ if the current ‘salami tactics’ – gradually increasing aggression until annexation is a fait accompli – fail. It must also deter foreign enemies to prevent war.. Xi likely knows Sun Zi’s The Art of War by heart. He knows that for a victory one must do exactly the opposite of what the American and Israeli aggressors have done.
According to Sun Zi: You must be well-informed about the enemy, see through their strategy, and set clear goals. Be a master of deception and diversion. Win through cleverness rather than force Be patient. I armed struggle is inevitable, strike only when the moment is most favorable. Keep the war short know your exit strategy before you begin.
A Costly Trick
In their ‘preventive’ attack on Iran, Trump and Netanyahu ignored all these basic rules. The only strategy Trump knows is contained in his 1987 book The Art of the Deal, a craft that has nothing to do with Sun Zi’s The Art of War .
The results in Iran speak for themselves. While the Pentagon claims the war cost $25 billion through April, realistic estimates suggest the true cost is in the hundreds of billions or even trillions. The Iranian regime has undoubtedly taken hard hits, but it is not defeated. On the contrary, it has grown strategically stronger and found an all-powerful weapon in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Stuck in the Swamp
The murderous attacks have given the Iranian regime a reason to build an atomic bomb to ensure its survival, much like the North Korean regime. Thus, Trump and Netanyahu will achieve the exact opposite of their goal: the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program. Trump is now twisting in every direction to extract himself from the Iranian ‘swamp’ with his head held high. Netanyahu cannot accept defeat either, but wants to resume the carpet-bombing of Iran. Unsurprisingly, the relationship between the two has soured.
Xi lets the aggressive American and Israeli ‘bumblers’ go their own way. As another great strategist, Napoleon, once said: ‘Never interfere wiht your enemy when he is making a mistake.’ Let him dig his own grave quietly, so that he unwittingly hands you the victory.
The Third Party Laughing
The Iran war is not a direct confrontation between the US and China, although some geopolitical analysts believe Trump’s attack was essentially intended to curb Chinese influence. They point to Iran’s economic dependence on China (90% of Iranian oil goes to the People’s Republic), promised Chinese mega-investments in Iran, and their shared dislike of the US.
Logic suggests Trump would not want to provoke China so shortly before a visit to Xi. But it wouldn’t be the first time logic and Trump proved incompatible. Sun Zi would have laughed with scorn.
Jan van der Putten is a writer and journalist, who previously served, among other things, as a correspondent in China. His latest book is: Tijd van illusies: Mijn kleine geschiedenis van de wereld” (Time of Illusions: My Little History of the World) published by Querido Facto
